What It Measures
Heavy truck sales measures new truck sales for Class 8 vehicles (trucks over 33,000 lbs gross vehicle weight). These are the large semi-trucks and tractor-trailers used for long-haul freight transportation.
The data is reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).
Why It Matters
Freight Indicator: Heavy truck sales reflect expectations for freight demand and economic activity.Business Investment: Represents a significant capital expenditure for trucking companies.Leading Indicator: Trucking companies buy trucks in anticipation of future demand.Supply Chain Health: Indicates the health of the logistics and transportation sector.
How to Interpret
Cyclical Nature: Truck sales are highly cyclical and often lead the business cycle.Replacement Cycles: Fleet age and emission regulations drive replacement demand.Order Backlogs: Watch both sales and unfilled orders for a complete picture.
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Above 500,000 | Strong freight demand, economic expansion |
| 400,000-500,000 | Healthy trucking market |
| 300,000-400,000 | Below-average demand |
| Below 300,000 | Weak freight market, potential recession |