What It Measures
Advance Retail Sales (Retail Trade) provides an early estimate of monthly retail sales excluding food services. This reading is released approximately two weeks after the reference month ends, making it one of the first reads on consumer spending each month.
- The report covers:
- Motor vehicles and parts dealers
- Furniture and home furnishings stores
- Electronics and appliance stores
- Building materials and garden supply stores
- Food and beverage stores
- Health and personal care stores
- Gasoline stations
- Clothing and accessories stores
- General merchandise stores
- Nonstore retailers (e-commerce)
Why It Matters
Timeliness: Released earlier than the full retail sales report, providing an early read on consumer spending.Consumer Spending Proxy: Consumer spending drives ~68% of U.S. GDP.Market Moving: Surprises in advance retail sales often cause significant market volatility.Fed Consideration: Strong consumer spending can influence inflation expectations and Fed policy.
How to Interpret
Month-over-Month: Focus on the percentage change from the prior month.Control Group: The "control group" excludes autos, gas, and building materials for a cleaner signal.Revisions: Advance estimates are often revised in subsequent months.Real vs Nominal: Adjust for inflation using CPI to see real spending changes.
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Above +0.5% MoM | Strong consumer spending growth |
| 0% to +0.5% MoM | Moderate spending growth |
| -0.5% to 0% MoM | Weak consumer spending |
| Below -0.5% MoM | Significant spending decline |