Labor MarketWeekly

SPY & Initial Jobless Claims

The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

SPY Price

$688.98

Initial Jobless Claims

Last Data: Jan 17, 2026
Last Release: Jan 22, 2026
Next Release: Jan 29, 2026
200,000
4-wk MA: 201,500

What It Measures

Initial jobless claims counts the number of people filing new claims for state unemployment benefits each week. This is considered a leading indicator because it captures real-time layoff activity before it shows up in monthly employment reports. The data is collected from state unemployment offices and reported with only a one-week lag, making it one of the timeliest economic indicators available.

Why It Matters

**Leading Indicator**: Rising claims often precede broader labor market weakness and economic slowdowns. **Real-Time Data**: Weekly frequency provides early warning of changing labor conditions. **Recession Signal**: Sustained increases above 300,000 claims per week have historically preceded recessions. **Fed Monitoring**: The Federal Reserve watches claims data closely as an early indicator of labor market stress.

Key Levels

Below 200,000
Very tight labor market, minimal layoffs
200,000-250,000
Healthy labor market
250,000-300,000
Moderate labor market, some softening
300,000-350,000
Elevated layoffs, potential weakness
Above 350,000
Significant labor market stress

Data Sources

SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-01-22)

Jobless Claims: ICSA - Initial Jobless Claims from U.S. Department of Labor

Units: Number, Seasonally Adjusted, Weekly