InflationMonthly

SPY & Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, tracking the prices of goods and services consumed by individuals.

SPY Price

$688.98

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Last Data: Nov 2025
Last Release: Jan 22, 2026
Next Release: Feb 20, 2026
$0.13T
$128.093 billion

PCE Year-over-Year Inflation

Last Data: Nov 2025
2.77%

What It Measures

The PCE Price Index measures price changes for personal consumption expenditures, capturing what households actually spend money on. Unlike CPI, PCE: - Uses a chain-weighted formula that accounts for substitution effects (consumers switching to cheaper alternatives) - Includes expenditures made on behalf of consumers (e.g., employer-paid health insurance) - Has broader coverage of goods and services - Tends to run about 0.3 percentage points below CPI historically

Why It Matters

**Fed's Preferred Measure**: The Federal Reserve officially targets 2% PCE inflation, not CPI. **More Comprehensive**: Captures spending patterns more accurately than CPI. **Policy Guidance**: FOMC statements and projections reference PCE inflation. **Less Volatile**: Generally shows smaller swings than CPI.

Key Levels

Below 2%
Below Fed target
2-2.5%
At or near target
2.5-3%
Moderately above target
Above 3%
Significantly above target, hawkish Fed

Data Sources

SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-01-22)

PCE: PCEPI - Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Units: Index 2017=100, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly