ConsumerMonthly

SPY & Real Retail Sales

Retail sales adjusted for inflation, showing the true purchasing power of consumer spending.

SPY Price

$688.98

Real Retail Sales YoY

Last Data: Nov 2025

Last Release: Jan 14, 2026

Next Release: Feb 17, 2026

0.6%

What It Measures

Real Retail Sales adjusts nominal retail sales for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This provides a measure of actual purchasing power and volume of consumer spending, rather than just dollar amounts. Formula: Real Retail Sales = Nominal Retail Sales / CPI × 100 This adjustment is critical during periods of high inflation when nominal sales may rise while actual consumption volumes fall.

Why It Matters

**True Spending Signal**: During high inflation, nominal sales may rise while consumers actually buy fewer goods. **Economic Health**: Real retail sales growth indicates genuine expansion in consumer activity. **GDP Input**: Real consumption is a key component of real GDP calculations. **Fed Policy**: Shows whether consumer demand is truly strong or just inflated by price increases.

Key Levels

Above +3% YoY

Strong real spending growth

0% to +3% YoY

Moderate real growth

-3% to 0% YoY

Weak or declining real spending

Below -3% YoY

Significant real spending contraction

Data Sources

SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-01-22)

Real Retail: RRSFS - Real Retail Sales from U.S. Census Bureau / FRED

Units: , ,