SPY & Treasury Yield Curve
The spread between long-term (10-year) and short-term (2-year or 3-month) Treasury yields.
SPY Price
10-Year minus 2-Year Spread
10-Year minus 3-Month Spread
What It Measures
The yield curve shows the relationship between interest rates and time to maturity for U.S. Treasury securities. Key spreads include: - **10Y-2Y Spread**: Most commonly watched, compares intermediate vs short-term expectations - **10Y-3M Spread**: Another popular measure, preferred by some researchers A normal curve slopes upward (long rates higher than short rates).
Why It Matters
**Recession Predictor**: An inverted yield curve (short rates exceeding long rates) has preceded every U.S. recession since 1970. **Economic Expectations**: The curve reflects market expectations for growth, inflation, and Fed policy. **Bank Profitability**: Banks borrow short and lend long, so a flat or inverted curve squeezes margins. **Fed Policy Gauge**: Shape indicates whether policy is restrictive or accommodative.
Key Levels
Data Sources
SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-01-22)
Yield Curve: T10Y2Y - Treasury Yield Curve from U.S. Treasury / Federal Reserve
Units: Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Daily